Reggie Bush Lottery

Trying to look on the bright side of the latest Packer debacle, I figured I would examine what it's going to take for them to get the first pick in the draft and the rights to Reggie Bush out of USC (whom I think will be the first pick).
Currently, the Packers are 2-8. That puts them tied with New Orleans, San Francisco, Tennessee and the NY Jets and 1 game ahead of Houston who is 1-9.

Let's look first at the Packers remaining schedule and figure out how they will finish. Their next 2 games are at Philly and at the Bears. Obvious losses. Then home against Detroit, another loss. Then at Baltimore. They could win that one. Then 2 more at home, against the Bears again and the Seahawks looking for revenge. I put them at a 3-13 finish. That's prime Reggie Bush land there.

Let's look at Houston next. Now, obviously the Packers need to have the worst record so we're going to need Houston to win at least 2 more games to finish at 3-13 as well. Looking at their schedule they could easily win a few more. They have St. Louis, Arizona and Jacksonville at home and are at Baltimore, Tennessee and San Fran. Now, let's assume they beat San Fran and St. Louis. That puts them at 3-13.

New Orleans, NY, Tennessee and San Fran will need to win 1 more game each to get to the 3-13 category. Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that all 5 teams finish at 3-13. Ooh, who gets first pick? It must be some complicated set of procedures for determining it, right? Well, sort of, only it's not what you would think and it's not the same as the procedure for determining playoff seeding.

Here's how it goes.
1) Strength of Schedule
2) Conference Tie breaker, which is best conference schedule.
3) Coin toss

What? Coin toss? You're leaving the future of a franchise up to which way George Washington's face lands? Uh, yep, it could happen.

Let's look closer at strength of schedule.
Through 10 games:
Packers' Opponents: 87-73
New Orleans' Opponents: 82-78
San Fran's Opponents: 85-75
NY Jets' Opponents: 82-78
Tennessee's Opponents: 79-81
Houston's Opponents: 86-74

Ok, what does that mean for the draft? What I can't find is whether the lowest strength of schedule gets the first pick or the highest. To me, it would be the lowest because you managed to have the worst record with the easiest schedule. In that scenario, Tennessee would draft first and the Packers would have the 6th pick.
But, what if it's not? What if they deem hardest schedule as the criteria? Then the Packers would manage to get first pick!
What if they tied with someon for hardest schedule and it went to conference record?
Here are the current conference records for each team:
Packers: 2-5 with 5 conference games left. Probably finish 2-10.
New Orleans: 1-6 with 5 conference games left. Probably finish 1-11.
San Fran: 2-7 with 3 conference games left. Probably finish 3-9.
NY Jets: 1-6 with 5 conference games left. Probably finish 1-11.
Tennessee: 2-6 with 4 conference games left. Probably finish 4-8.
Houston: 1-8 with 3 conference games left. Probably finish 1-11.

As you can see, it's really up in the air. The Pack has a shot at Bush but so do many other teams. Tune in weekly to see who is getting worse and who is winning themselves out of contention!